GBPUSD: Pound high on British opinion polls forecasting Govt win
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the key levels were reached yet.
Today’s GBP/USD Signals
Risk 0.75% per trade.
Trades may only be entered before 5pm London time today.
Long Trade Idea
Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.3081 or 1.3041.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Idea
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.3249.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
GBP/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that it was really impossible to forecast price movement in this pair now as everything would depend upon the results of further opinion polls which may be released plus rumours. The polls have continued to mostly show a Conservative majority and the betting markets continue to show a 75% probability of a Conservative majority happening when results are counted at 10pm tonight London time.
There will be no more official polls but there will be rumours of internal polls and turnout throughout the day which may affect the price. However, it looks like the price will, if anything, continue to rise quietly until 10pm when everything will depend upon the exit poll and then the actual results as they emerge seat by seat over the following hours.
The better the Conservatives do, the more the Pound should rise. If the results show another inconclusive result, expect the Pound to tumble sharply, while a shock Labour victory would see a crash similar to the 2016 referendum result.
I think the Conservatives will get a majority and so I am bullish.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the USD. Regarding the GBP, there will be voting today in the British General Election, with polls closing at 10pm London time.