EUR/USD: New 2.5-year low price reached yesterday
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as the price did not reach 1.0865.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be taken between 8am and 5pm London time today only.
Short Trade Ideas
Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.0803, 1.0825, or 1.0865.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that there was no reason not to be bearish, with the U.S. Dollar generally strong still, and the price showing every sign of readying to fall further. I took a bearish bias for the day upon 2 consecutive hourly closes below 1.0825. We did get those closes, and at the time of writing, the price I a little lower still, so this was a good call.
The price again made another 2.5-year low price yesterday and closed at a similar low at the end of the New York session. These are bearish signs, as is the printing of new lower resistance levels which can be seen in the price chart below.
The technical picture remains very bearish, although we have not yet seen a break of yesterday’s low price. There are no key support levels until below 1.0700, but it could be that the big quarter-number at 1.0750 acts as support if it is reached today.
I will take a bearish bias today if we see an hourly close below yesterday’s low, but watch out for the FOMC meeting minutes release later as if this contains a dovish surprise, we could expect a strongly bullish reaction in this pair, at least over the short term.
Concerning the USD, there will be a release of FOMC Meeting Minutes at 7pm London time. There is nothing of high importance due today regarding the EUR.