Last Thursday’s signals produced a very profitable short trade from that day’s bearish reversal at 0.6585.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be taken from 8am New York time Monday until 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Short Trade Ideas
Go short following bearish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6562, 0.6585, 0.6607, or 0.6623.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Idea
Go long following bullish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6543.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that I was very comfortable taking a bearish bias if any of the key resistance levels were reached and produced bearish reversal price action. Risk-off sentiment may ebb and flow, but it is not going away any time soon.
This was a great call as we got a bearish reversal at my resistance level at 0.6585 which produced a maximum potential quick profit of about 130 pips.
The Australian Dollar has been uniquely vulnerable to the coronavirus-driven risk-off market sentiment which caused large, powerful price movements. This is due to Australia’s exposure to Asian markets in general and China especially, as well as its usual vulnerability to risk-off sentiment, plus the fact that the currency has been under pressure for domestic reasons, with central bank interest rates at their lowest level ever. In fact, pressure is building for a further rate cut to stimulate the Australian economy, which will be taking a hit from the coronavirus outbreak.
After falling strongly to a new 11-year low price on Friday, this currency pair rebounded sharply as risk sentiment improved following declarations from the Federal Reserve and then the Bank of Japan today. There is even a new support level at 0.6543 although it does not look strong.
It is difficult to say what will happen in the short term, but the Australian Dollar remains very vulnerable and that is unlikely to change over the next few days, so I still prefer short trades at reversals at any resistance level which is reached.Concerning the USD, there will be a release of ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 3pm London time.
Regarding the AUD, there will be a release of Building Approvals data at 12:30am followed by the RBA’s Cash Rate and Rate Statement at 3:30am.