AUD/USD: Increasingly likely that the price put in a medium-term bottom
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as there was insufficiently bearish price action at 0.6623.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades my only be entered from 8am New York time Thursday to 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Short Trade Ideas
Short entry following bearish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6662, 0.6683, or 0.6706.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
Long entry following bullish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6583 or 0.6562.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that the resistant area below 0.6635 may hold, as it looked quite strong, so if the price could get established above that level, it would be a bullish sign.
I was looking for a long trade from a bullish bounce at any support level, which did not happen, but my basically bullish call was a good one as the price has continued to advance, albeit at a slower pace.
The Australian Dollar has been helped by better than expected Australian economic data for a second day, while the U.S. Dollar is still relatively weak following the emergency Federal Reserve 0.50% rate cut which happened earlier this week. I think that it is also the case that the price looks like it put in a long-term, multi-year bottom, so long-term investors have been buying the Australian Dollar.
I remain basically weakly bullish, but it looks as if the resistance level at 0.6635 could be too strong for the price to advance further yet. This is certainly today’s pivotal point and the price will be more bullish once it clears that level, but there are still several resistance levels nearby which can cause a retracement, so bulls should be very careful unless they are in it to hold a position for the long term.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding the USD. Concerning the AUD, there will be a release of Retail Sales data at 12:30am London time.