BTC/USD: Weakly bearish
Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bearish price action at $5,937.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades must be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Long Trade Ideas
Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $5,683 or $4,903.
Place the stop loss $50 below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trade Ideas
Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $6,089 or $6,418 or $6,793.
Place the stop loss $50 above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that I thought we may see a short-term rise in price, but I thought risky assets such as Bitcoin were going to go lower still over the coming days and weeks, so I was happy to take a bearish bias if we get a bearish price action reversal at any key resistance levels.
This was a good call as the price did rise over the short term, but has now pulled back to look more bearish, with the short-term price action suggesting a continuing gentle fall is most likely.
The problem for bears is that the support level below at $5,683 looks very strong, so it will probably be hard for the price to break below it. However, even if we do get a bounce there, I have no faith that a strong bullish movement will happen. For this reason, I would avoid trading this pair today, or look for a short trade from any of the higher resistance levels identified above.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the USD.