EUR/USD: Euro acting as safe haven
Last Thursday’s signals produced a losing short trade from the pin candlestick on the hourly chart which rejected the resistance level at 1.0993.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be taken between 8am and 5pm London time today.
Short Trade Ideas
Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1100, 1.1119, or 1.1141.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Idea
Go long following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.0948.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that the technical picture had become more bullish, with the price moving up steadily within a symmetrical bullish price channel. I was looking to take a long bias from a bounce at any key support level.
I was correct to look to the long side although the price never got back to support, with the price continuing to rise and breaking bullishly out of its former price channel which can still be seen within the price chart below.
The Euro is relatively strong as it acts as both a safe haven currency on risk off sentiment, and when risk sentiment improves it also seems to do well as it looks like the U.S. central bank will need to take easing actions before the ECB will.
It seems there is every reason to expect the price to continue to rise here, although in the absence of any long-term trend, the price will most likely run into strong resistance fairly soon.
I think the price will rise to reach at least 1.1100 today.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding the EUR. Concerning the USD, there will be a release of ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 3pm London time.