EUR/USD: Euro acting as safe haven
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as the bearish price action at 1.1204 was not fast enough to trigger a short trade entry.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be taken between 8am and 5pm London time today only.
Short Trade Ideas
Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1204, 1.1244, or 1.1279.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Idea
Go long following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1066.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that the signs were bullish, but the price had made a long journey to get to this area near 1.1200 which has acted as resistance for a long time, so this pair may be due a bearish pullback.
This was a good call as the price continued to rise before hitting the resistance level at 1.1204 and selling off somewhat from there. This price area is a long-term swing high, so I expected it to be difficult for the price to penetrate right now, there are also a few resistance levels above 1.1204.
The Euro is generally bullish while the USD has been weak, but we are seeing a lot of flux in the Forex markets right now following the Fed’s 0.50% rate cut, so the Dollar is strengthening somewhat.
Today’s price movement is very difficult to predict, the best I can say is that it is quite likely that the resistance at 1.1204 will hold unless the NFP forecast due later is much worse than expected.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding the EUR. Concerning the USD, there will be a release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 1:15pm London time followed by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data at 3pm.