EUR/USD: USD generally very weak
Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered, as there was insufficiently bearish price action at 1.1204.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be taken between 8am and 5pm London time today only.
Short Trade Ideas
Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1477, 1.1540, or 1.1572.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1359 or 1.1279.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that the resistance at 1.1204 would hold until Friday. I was wrong about that, as there was a general weakening of the USD underway which the positive NFP numbers was unable to prevent. This weakening is mostly being caused by increasing fear over the coronavirus outbreak, which has caused further strong falls in the relative value of the U.S. Dollar and global stock markets, with the U.S. market nearly reaching bear market territory after trading down about 17.50% from its all-time high only two or three weeks ago.
The Euro is a safe haven currency in a small way, so we have seen a break now to a new 1-year high, which is bullish. However other assets such as the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc are benefiting by considerably more.
It is hard to see any reason to take short trades, so the best approach here is likely to be looking for long trades from bounces at support levels following retracements. However, trading more obvious safe havens is likely to be a more profitable approach.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding either the EUR or the USD.