AUD/USD: Normal bearish retracement underway
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as there was no bearish price action when the resistance level identified at 0.6386 was reached.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may be taken between 8am New York time Tuesday and 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.
Short Trade Idea
- Go short following bearish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6462.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long following bullish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6373 or 0.6268.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that the picture was still essentially bullish technically, but there would probably be a natural bearish retracement, maybe to 0.6268 as a logical nearby support or the round number at 0.6300, where we could expect a bullish bounce and a resumption of the bullish move to be the most likely outcome.
I was wrong about the depth of the pullback but correct that the price would continue to advance bullishly. The price has easily exceeded one of the resistance levels identified, before making what seems to be the start of a stronger bearish retracement from the day’s peak above 0.6400.
I expect a bearish retracement now to about 0.6373 before we get a bullish bounce and a likely resumption of the dominant bullish trend which we see in this pair. I would be very happy to enter a long trade following a bullish bounce at this level if it sets up later.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning either the AUD or the USD.