EUR/USD: Strong resistance at 1.0968
Last Thursday’s signals produced a losing short trade from the bearish reversal at 1.0888.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be taken before 5pm London time today only.
Short Trade Idea
Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.0968.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.0919 or 1.0888.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that I saw the next likely short-term movement technically as being upwards although the resistance level at 1.0919 did look very strong. I expected that the price would respect both 1.0832 and 1.0919. I was wrong, the price in fact broke above 1.0919 and used it as a base for new higher support.
The technical picture has followed this development and become more bullish. However, despite the thin holiday trading before the New York open today, the price strongly rejected the resistance level at 1.0968. Despite that, as long as the support at 1.0919 holds, I think this would be a good entry point at a bullish bounce for a long trade, as the USD does seem generally weak since markets opened this week.
The U.S. stock market has clawed back almost half its peak to trough decline from February to March, which suggests that a key technical area has been reached which might produce a strong bearish reversal, which might then have a major impact upon the USD.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning either the EUR or the USD. It is a public holiday today in the U.K. and several other European nations.