BTC/USD: Weakly bearish
Yesterday’s signals may have generated a short trade from the hourly doji candlestick which rejected the resistance level at $9,595. This is at about break even at the time of writing and it might be a good idea to exit for break even or a very small loss.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades may only be entered prior to 5 pm Tokyo time Friday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $9,388 or $9,140.
- Put the stop loss $50 below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $9,595 or $9,731.
- Put the stop loss $50 above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that as a breakdown below $9,388 would be a minor bearish sign, and a break above $9,596 would suggest that the price should continue to rise to reach $9,731 soon.
The price did break below $9,388 before falling by another $150 and then recovering, so my call turned out to be correct.
The wide bearish price channel continues, but we have a new higher support level at $9,238 and also new lower resistance at $9,462.
The technical picture has changed little from yesterday and the price, although broadly bearish, still looks indecisive.
The best approach will probably be now to look for a short trade only at $9,595 which is quite confluent with the upper channel trend line, although $9,462 also looks interesting.
Unfortunately for bears, the two support levels below shown in the chart also look strong.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today regarding the USD.