USD/JPY: Bullish break building?
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as the high of the day was 1 pip below the nearest resistance level at 107.86 and so was not hit.
Today’s USD/JPY Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be entered from 8 am New York time Wednesday to 5 pm Tokyo time Thursday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 107.86 or 108.23 or 108.54.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 106.43.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/JPY Analysis
I wrote yesterday that we were seeing a consolidation pattern playing out, but it was looking a little more bullish, so I thought that the price might be established above the resistance at 107.86.
The level has held, so my call was at least enough to keep out of trouble.
The technical picture has not really changed at all, except the consolidation is acting a little more bullishly so I think that a break above 107.86 is looking even more likely now. These breaks into clusters of resistance levels can often by fast and sharp, so a strong spike up would not surprise me as a lot of short trade stops would be run if it happens.
Alternatively, the resistance at 107.86 might hold, so there might be a chance for a short trade entry signal if we get a strong and firm bearish reversal there later.
The Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Statement release a few hours ago had no impact on the price whatsoever.
Regarding the USD, the Chair of the Federal Reserve will be testifying before Congress at 3pm London time. There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the JPY.