BTC/USD: More bearish below $11,600
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as the bullish bounce at the support level of $11,659 did not happen until after Tokyo closed, and there was no bullish price action at the higher identified support levels which were hit.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades may only be entered before 5 pm Tokyo time Thursday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $11,659 or $11,400.
- Place the stop loss $50 below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $11,847 or $12,296.
- Place the stop loss $50 above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that if we break above $12,000 was a bullish sign, but I was concerned about the $12,500 area acting as resistance to a further move up despite the bullish trend, so I was only prepared to take a bullish bias if we had gotten two consecutive hourly closes later above $12,500.
This was a great call insofar as it avoided the danger of going long – the price never even reached $12,500 so I was right to see this as a pivotal area.
We see a fairly deep bearish retracement now, putting the bullish trend in some doubt, but the support level at $11,659 has held and looks strong. I am prepared to take a bullish bias if we get another bounce at this level later.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding the USD.