BTC/USD: Resistance at $11,715 looks key
Last Thursday’s signals produced a very slightly profitable short trade from the bearish rejection of the resistance level I had identified at $11,518.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades may only be entered before 5 pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $11,557 or $10,696.
- Place the stop loss $50 below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $11,715, $11,924, or $12,105.
- Place the stop loss $50 above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that the current short trade from the resistance level I had identified at $11,518 was most likely to continue moving into profit, so I continued to take a bearish bias on Bitcoin. I was encouraged by the symmetrical bearish price channel which could be seen in that day’s price chart.
This was an OK call as the price did continue to fall over the hours following my forecast, before it made a double bottom at the low of $11,113, and recovered to end the day more or less where it started.
The technical picture has changed again from last Thursday, with the picture becoming less bearish after the price broke out of the top of the bearish price channel. The price made it to the resistance level at $11,715 before selling off during recent hours.
The price action looks difficult to predict today. Both a short from another rejection of $11,715 or a long from a bullish bounce at $11,557 would be legitimate trades, although I would prefer the short trade.
If the price can get established below $11,557 that would be a bearish sign.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the USD.