GBP/USD: Price likely to continue to move sideways
Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bullish price action at 1.2913.
Today’s GBP/USD Signals
Risk 0.75% per trade.
Trades may only be entered prior to 5 pm London time today.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.3023 or 1.3079.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.2852.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
GBP/USD Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that the support level at 1.2913 was the obvious and most likely pivotal point.
I thought that if the USD picked up some momentum again later and the price got established below 1.2913, I would be happy to take a bearish bias if we get two consecutive hourly closes below 1.2913 later after the Bank of England’s release.
This was enough to keep out of trouble as we did not get two consecutive hourly closes below 1.2913 after the release, although there was a second close just after the release that may have tempted traders into a short which did not work out at all.
In any case, I was wrong about 1.2913 being very pivotal, though overall it has shown you how useless technical analysis can be when central banks are giving major policy inputs.
The technical picture now is quite simple – a wide, ranging consolidation below the big round number at 1.3000, which no clear key support level above 1.2852.
The U.S. Dollar seems to be strengthening as the London session gets underway, so some kind of downwards move seems likely today as the price is closer to the top of the consolidation range than the bottom.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the GBP. Regarding the USD, the Chair of the Federal Reserve will be giving a minor speech at 3 pm London time.