Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as none of the key levels identified have been reached yet, although I also saw a long trade from a breakout above $18,720 which was a profitable approach.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
Long Trade Ideas
Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $18,674, $17,097, or $16,898.
Place the stop loss $50 below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trade Ideas
Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $19,977, or $20,000.
Place the stop loss $50 above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that the technical picture was bullish, but bulls needed to break the inner trend line.
I thought that the best approach to trading Bitcoin yesterday was likely to be waiting for a bullish breakout beyond the descending trend line which was sitting at about $18,720.
I will take a bullish bias if we get two consecutive hourly closes above that trend line.
This was an OK call as we did get this bullish breakout and the price moved mostly upwards from there and is currently higher at the time of writing.
The price used the broken descending trend line as support from the other side following the breakout and made still higher prices yesterday as well as printing a confluent flipped resistance to support level at $18,674. These are all bullish signs.
The only reason for bulls to be cautious is the fact that we are very close to the all-time high price just below $20,000, which may act as strong resistance, as may the actual big round number there itself. Yet it looks likely that the price will rise today, and I will be interested to take a long trade from any bullish bounce at support.
Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Preliminary GDP and Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm London time, followed by Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment at 3pm and the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 7pm.