Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered as there was no bullish price action when the price first reached 1.1743 or 1.1684.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be taken before 5pm London time today only.
Short Trade Idea
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1704.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Idea
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1517.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that I would continue to look to the short side and would take a short trade if we had gotten a bearish reversal from either 1.1804 or 1.1789.
The price never got back to those levels, but I was correct on the direction of this currency pair, as the price fell quite strongly Thursday, and is lower still now.
The U.S. Dollar is the strongest major currency and the Euro the weakest at present, so this pair is at the heart of the Forex market right now.
The Euro is being weakened by the fact that the coronavirus is really taking off in Europe again, leading to new and economically damaging lockdowns in several Eurozone nations, including the major ones of France and Germany.
Technically, the price is in an interesting area which has been reached after consistent and firm bearish momentum. The lowest daily close in several months was at 1.1627 and if the price ends today’s New York session below that level, we will be seeing a long-term bearish breakout. There is no question, this pair is in a long-term bearish trend.
The price is currently trading a little way below a support level I identified at 1.1638. This I a good level to watch – if it holds up going into the first hour or two of today’s London session, it will be less likely to fall to new lows.
I will take a short trade if the first two hours of the London session see closes below 1.1627 or if there is a New York close below that level at the end of today.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the EUR. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of ISM Manufacturing data at 3pm London time.