Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as there was no bearish price action when the resistance level at 1.1700 was first reached.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be entered between 8am and 5pm London time today.
Short Trade Ideas
Short trade entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1767, 1.1789, 1.1804, or 1.1840.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Idea
Long trade entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1700, 1.1695, or 1.1680.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that as long as the result of the U.S. presidential election hangs in the balance, we can expect wide and volatile price swings in this currency pair. Therefore I thought that the best strategy in this situation would probably be trading any reversals from price extremes, so I was seeking a short trade from a bearish reversal at 1.1767, or a long trade from a bullish reversal at 1.1517.
This call was enough to keep out of trouble, but volatility has been less than I expected, as while it is still possible Trump could be the eventual winner, it is looking considerably more likely that Biden will very narrowly win. This has caused the price to stabilize somewhat, with recent price action over the past few hours beginning to look more bullish.
The dominant technical feature in the price chart below is the medium-term bearish trend line which is currently holding the price down. A sustained break above it, which seems close and likely, will be a bullish sign, but much will depend upon any further news on the U.S. vote count which is ongoing in key states, as well as the FOMC statement due later.
We may still see volatile action, so I again look for price reversals at extremes following news or rumours, such a short trade from any bearish reversal 1.1840.
I think the price is likely to rise during at least the first half of today’s London session.
Concerning the EUR, we will see the releasaae of Eurozone economic forecasts at some point later today. Regarding the USD, counting and result releases are continuing in the U.S. presidential election, and the FOMC Statement will be released at 7pm London time followed by the usual press conference half an hour later.