Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as the bullish rejection of the support level identified at 1.1815 did not happen until after 5pm London time.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be entered before 5pm London time today.
Short Trade Idea
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1929.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1850, 1.1815, 1.1789, or 1.1745.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that any bullishness here looked weak and we did not see the price making any firm bullish move. Therefore, I thought that the best strategy for this currency pair in this environment was probably to look for reversals at price extremes, such as a bullish bounce at 1.1815 where a bullish double bottom has already printed over recent days, or a bearish reversal at 1.1929.
This was a good and accurate call, as the pair did find strong support at 1.1815. Unfortunately, this set up too late to give a long trade entry signal.
The price has recovered, but after reaching to about 1.1900 yesterday, there was a strong fall. The recovery also looks quite fragile, with the price barely sitting on new support at 1.1850 which looks weak and quite likely to break down. Although the USD is weak, the euro is not strong.
If the new support at 1.1850 holds, that will be a bullish sign. However, I think the strong fall from the area of long-term resistance between 1.1900 and 1.2000 is probably telling us something.
Another bounce at 1.1815 could be a bullish double bottom and a nice signal for a long trade entry.
Regarding the USD, there will be a release of CB Consumer Confidence data at 3pm London time, There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the USD.