Traders of the USD/INR had to endure a difficult month of November trading. Essentially, from the 26th of October until the 24th of November, the Forex pair took speculators on a rollercoaster ride and tested their trading capabilities on a daily basis. Traders have needed to pay attention and be nimble. Those with long-term positions have certainly needed appropriate risk management in order to profit or even survive speculative positions.
The 75.0000 level was tested on the 3rd and 13th of November in the USD/INR. Topping off the noteworthy spiral of volatility is the fact that on the 9th of November, the USD/INR touched the 73.6000 level below with an explosive spike downwards. As the month of December approaches, it seems for the moment that the USD/INR has created a calmer atmosphere. The Forex pair is trading below the 74.0000 juncture once again, and is testing a support level last seen on the 9th of November near the 74.7500 vicinity.
The question for speculators is if December will see a return to the relatively calmer trading ranges of September and October. From early September until late in October, the USD/INR essentially traded within a range of 73.0000 to 74.0000. Risk-averse trading certainly ruptured at the very end of October and cascaded into the middle of November.
As risk appetite globally has found a framework to stand on, the USSD/INR has also been able to begin demonstrating its ability to sustain a bearish trend since the 13th of November. To guard against volatile gyrations, speculators should use limit orders with the USD/INR, and the use of take profit and stop loss orders is a wise choice too. Speculators are right to feel a little nervous while trading the USD/INR, but its volatile cycle may be ending and its range may prove worthwhile.
The last three months of trading have largely produced sideways trading with terribly choppy waters for the USD/INR. However, in late August, the USD/INR was trading near the 72.8000 level and more downside momentum may be found. The 73.0000 to 74.0000 junctures must be dealt with first by speculators. Traders should look to see if the USD/INR can sustain its trading below the 74.0000 level. If the Forex pair maintains its ability to remain below the 73.8000 juncture in the coming week or so, this may signal a return to its known range and mean another bearish trend can develop.
If global risk appetite remains steady and optimistic, it may also help the USD/INR challenge support levels below. Yes, speculators have certainly seen volatile trading the past month, and the USD/INR was able to create bedlam with its swift rise upwards as it tested the 75.0000 price levels. But perhaps that spike higher and the reversals lower from this high water mark indicate the USD/INR will begin to create a calmer price range and test waters between the 73.2000 to 73.8500 junctures in December. Speculators who have the fortitude to sell the USD/INR may find the Forex pair provides an opportunity to take advantage of additional downside momentum in the coming weeks.
USD/INR Outlook for December:
- Speculative price range for USD/INR is 73.0300 to 74.5600.
- Support at 73.5600 may prove to be a target below; if it is challenged, another test lower could develop to 73.4100 to the 73.2500 marks below and beyond.
- Resistance at 74.0000 could prove to be important psychologically, if breeched higher the 74.1500 to 74.2500 junctures may face tests. If these higher resistance levels do not hold, the USD/INR could challenge the 74.5600 mark.
