Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bullish price action at either of the support levels which have been reached before the Tokyo close.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
Long Trade Ideas
Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $17,900, $17,537, $17,078, or $16,173.
Place the stop loss $50 below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trade Ideas
Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $18,330, $18,930, $19,429, $19,864 or $20,000.
Place the stop loss $50 above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that a short trade could become more attractive here, confirmed technically by a break below the lower ascending trend line. I wanted to wait to go short until the price had made two consecutive hourly closes below $18,871 and was moving with firm bearish momentum on short time frames.
This was an excellent call as I correctly anticipated the bearish breakdown of the consolidating triangle and called a profitable entry point which turned out to be at $18,780 from where the price has fallen considerably, giving a profitable short trade.
I have been warning for days that new highs were looking increasingly unlikely. When trading or investing in Bitcoin it is wise to not listen to the eternal bulls pushing a pro-Bitcoin agenda but instead to make a sober technical analysis. The price of Bitcoin is often driven by technical analysis and tends to respect technical price chart features as it is such a highly speculative asset with such little real-world demand.
After the bearish price movement, the price now seems to be finding support at $17,901. If this level holds up today, we can start to see the recent fall as just a moderate retracement in the long-term bullish trend. However, I feel that it is unlikely that Bitcoin will hit $20,000 before January, so I am ready to take a short trade entry from any bearish reversal at any of the key resistance levels which might be hit today.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding the USD.