Last Wednesday’s signals were not triggered as there was no bullish price action when the support level identified at 1.2193 was first reached.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be taken before 5pm London time today.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.2107 or 1.2178.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.2060 or 1.2005.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote last Wednesday that although the long-term bullish trend in this currency pair seemed to be beginning to reassert itself, I did not think bulls should get excited yet but should wait and watch to see if the price could get established above the nearby resistance level at 1.2227, after which point a long trade may be taken from that level acting as support. I thought that a short trade from a bearish reversal at 1.2277 could also be interesting.
This was a good call as after peaking just a few pips short of the resistance I called at 1.2227, the price has continued to fall quite strongly, and has been suppressed by the descending trend line connecting the highs shown in the price chart below.
Recent days have seen the Euro as one of the weakest major currencies, while the U.S. Dollar has been the strongest, in an at least temporary reversal of the long-term bearish trend in the greenback.
The past few hours have seen a bottoming of the price above the nearby support level at 1.2060, but the level still looks vulnerable and it seems that the USD may still rise further over the coming days.
The next support level below that, at 1.2005, may be strong as it is so confluent with the major round number at 1.2000.
I am happy to take a short trade from a bearish reversal at 1.2107, or a cautious long trade from a bullish reversal at 1.2005.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today regarding either the EUR or the USD. It is a public holiday today in the USA.