Last Wednesday’s Bitcoin signals were not triggered, as there was no bullish price action when the key support level at $52,274 was reached that day.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades must be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $35,855, $35,357, or $34,611.
- Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $39,717, $41,021, or $46,595.
- Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote last Wednesday that the technical picture had changed to one of a flat, wide consolidation, even as the second major cryptocurrency Ethereum powered up to new record highs. I noted it is rare to see Ethereum behave like this while Bitcoin does little and it could be that this is a strong reason to avoid buying Bitcoin right now.
I was correct about this warning sign on Bitcoin, as we have seen the price move strongly lower over the past week. I thought that the wide range identified between the $60k area and the $52,250 area would hold over the short term, but it broke down very easily later the same day, so I was wrong about that.
It must be emphasised that the recent massive rises in the value of cryptocurrencies have been so strong that a correction as we are seeing now was inevitable at some point. Bitcoin and almost all cryptocurrencies are losing value strongly. It is impossible to say how much further the fall will go, but the technical picture is bearish in every way and as there is strong bearish momentum, it makes sense to look for short- to medium-term short trades in Bitcoin – there is plenty of volatility so there is money to be made here if you get it right but be careful and use a hard stop loss.
I will be very happy to enter a short trade in Bitcoin if we get a retracement and bearish reversal at any of the resistance levels identified above.
Regarding the USD, there will be a release of FOMC Meeting Minutes at 7pm London time.