Bullish Case
- Set a buy-stop at 1.4200 and a take-profit at 1.4250 (upper side of the channel).
- Add a stop-loss at 1.4150.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish Case
- Set a sell-stop at 1.4160 and a take-profit at 1.4100.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.4250.
The GBP/USD price was little changed in the overnight session as investors’ attention turned to the upcoming employment numbers from the United States. It is trading at 1.4170, which is slightly below this week’s high of 1.4250.
US Employment Numbers Ahead
The GBP/USD and other majors are unchanged ahead of the latest jobs data from the United States. On Thursday, the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS)will publish the latest initial jobless claims numbers. The data are expected to show that the number of people who filed initial jobless claims declined from 406k to 390k last week. This will be the lowest number since the pandemic started. The continuing jobless claims are expected to drop from 3.64 million to 3.615 million last week.
These numbers will come 15 minutes after the ADP Institute publishes the latest employment change numbers. Economists expect the data to show that US private employers added 650k jobs in May after adding 742k in the previous month. The employment numbers by ADP tend to significantly differ from the official numbers by the BLS.
The BLS will then publish the latest official numbers tomorrow. Analysts expect the data to reveal that the US unemployment rate declined from 6.1% in April to 5.9% in May. They also expect the economy added more than 600k jobs in May. These numbers will provide further evidence that the US labor market is still tightening.
The GBP/USD will today react to the Service PMIs from the UK and US. In the UK, analysts expect the data to show that the Service MI rose to 61.8 in May as more service providers reopened. This is usually an important figure, since the services sector accounts for more than 70% of the UK economy. In the afternoon session, Markit and the ISM will publish the latest PMI data from the United States.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD was little changed during the American and Asian sessions. On the four-hour chart, the price is between the ascending channel that is shown in red. It is also along the 25-day and 15-day exponential moving averages (EMA) while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at the neutral level of 50. Therefore, the pair will likely remain inside this range ahead of the US nonfarm payroll data set for tomorrow.
