As August gets ready to start, traders of BTC/USD may want to take a moment and reflect on the rather turbulent last two weeks of trading. After falling to a low of nearly 29310.00 on the 20th of July, on the 28th of July BTC/USD was trading near 40920.00. These heights hadn’t been challenged since mid-June, when Bitcoin was trading near 41400.00. However, by the 22nd of June, BTC/USD was trading near 28530.00. The recent highs made in Bitcoin came within sight of the mid-June marks, but did not seriously challenge them, and if the highs and lows sound like they are being repeated...you get the point.
The volatility within Bitcoin has been vast the past two months, lows have proven steep and reversals upward have been strong. Traders technically must be prepared for not only swift markets which are almost certain to be delivered in the weeks ahead, put price change ratios which need extremely careful risk management. The ability of BTC/USD to move in intervals of one thousand dollars within a day cannot be overstated. Traders who are not experienced and use too much leverage while taking BTC/USD positions often find their trading lessons costly. Yes, there are new traders who will pick a trend correctly and find that they have made a serious amount of money too.
The question which traders need to contemplate is what will happen with the 40000.00 ratio during August. This juncture is now serving as important resistance and it could be proven vulnerable in a number of hours, or it may remain a focal point for the entire month to come. The month of July essentially saw BTC/USD trading between 31000.00 and 40000.00 with the occasional outliers. Having been within the depths of a strong bearish trend since reaching highs on the 14th of April that tested values of nearly 65000.00, speculators have numerous reasons to remain cautious.
The end of June produced similar results for BTC/USD that it is experiencing now, and this adds to technical nervousness. Is this time different? Is BTC/USD going to continue the bullish trend it has built the past ten days of trading and start puncturing resistance levels easily? Resistance near 42000.00 should be watched carefully; if this juncture proves weak and buying momentum shows velocity, the next important level is 43600.00. The last time BTC/USD seriously traded above this plateau was in the middle of May.
BTC/USD Outlook for August
Speculative price range for BTC/USD is 26500.00 to 51000.00.
Yes, this range written above is wide, but having achieved a bullish trend the past week-and-a-half just before August gets ready to begin makes predicting values a speculative wager. Traders should be very careful to monitor technical trends and try to take advantage of momentum. If the 40000.00 to 41000.00 junctures prove strong as resistance and BTC/USD starts to weaken again, traders should monitor support near the 37000.00 juncture. If this value begins to be tested and is penetrated lower, it may be taken as a negative sign that the recent bullish trend has run out of steam and values may begin to break lower with velocity.
The 34000.00 level could prove important psychologically and, if this lower support level fails, traders may anticipate additional lows which will target July and June lows again. Any move below 31000.00 could be a very bad sign and signal that further erosion is going to be demonstrated in an unkind manner.
On the other hand, if positive momentum builds and speculative bulls see positive higher values, this could signal that a real test of loftier resistance is about to be demonstrated. If the 42000.00 juncture proves easy to surpass, and the 44000.00 to 45000.00 ratios are brushed aside, traders may build on positive sentiment and create a buying frenzy which could easily see Bitcoin test the 50000.00 in August.
Again, traders should be cautious and use their risk management tactics wisely. Overly ambitious trading positions or being stubborn when trading BTC/USD can lead to costly adventures. The notion that the trend is important within Bitcoin cannot be overstated and be given deep consideration.
