Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be taken between 8am and 5pm London time today.
Short Trade Ideas
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1750, 1.1800, or 1.1831.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1705 or 1.1691.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
Recent weeks have seen this currency pair in a long-term bearish trend as it descended to make new multi-month lows, but not by much – the momentum was never particularly strong. The euro can be said to have been a relatively weak currency, but the trend was driven more by US dollar strength which has seen the greenback hit highs against almost every currency except the havens such as the Japanese yen.
Yesterday saw the price rebound strongly from the low as riskier assets made a comeback in line with rising stock markets. This has pushed the price up in what seems to be an impulsive wave which was only halted, at least temporarily, by the resistance level at 1.1750 which happens to be a psychological quarter-number.
The key thing to watch for today in this pair is whether the resistance level at 1.1750 holds. If it does, as we still have a valid long-term bearish trend, a reversal from this level could provide a good short trade opportunity for swing traders or position traders, while scalpers may try to trade right off the 1.1750 level itself. Of course, there is no reason why such a short scalp could not turn into a longer-term trade if it runs, and scalpers should try to achieve that from any rejection from 1.1750 as it might well run.
I will take a bearish bias if we get a firm reversal off 1.1750. If we get two consecutive hourly closes above 1.1750, I think the price will be likely to continue to rise to at least 1.1800.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning either the EUR or the USD.