This week we will begin with our monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of our forecast is based upon our research of the past 18 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:
Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the past 3 months.
Assuming that trends are usually ready to reverse after 12 months.
Trading against very strong weekly counter-trend movements by currency pairs made during the previous week.
Carry Trade: Buying currencies with high interest rates and selling currencies with low interest rates.
Let us look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:
Monthly Forecast August 2021
For the month of August, we made no forecast as there were no clear trends at the start of the month in the Forex market showing very strong momentum.
Weekly Forecast 29th August 2021
Last week, we made no weekly forecast, as there were no large counter-trend price movements in any important currency pairs or crosses.
This week, we forecast that the AUD/USD currency pair is likely to fall in value, as it made an unusually strong counter-trend movement last week.
The Forex market saw a high level of volatility last week, with 59% of all the important currency pairs or crosses moving by more than 1% in value. Volatility is likely to remain high or increase even further over the coming week, so it is likely to be a good time to trade.
Last week was dominated by relative strength in the Australian dollar, and relative weakness in the U.S. dollar. However, there remains a valid, strong bullish trend in the U.S. dollar.
You can trade our forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.
Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs
We teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that can be watched on the more popular currency pairs this week.
That is all for this week. You can trade our forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account to test the strategies and strengthen your self-confidence before investing real funds.