Last Monday’s BTC/USD signal was not triggered as the bullish price action took place below the only support level which was reached.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades must be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
Long Trade Ideas
Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $46,595 or $43,836.
Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trade Ideas
Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $48,675 or $49,835.
Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote last Monday that Bitcoin was slowly turning more bearish as it could not get above $50k and support levels were providing bullish bounces but only over the short-term.
I thought that if the price broke below $46,595 it would be likely to fall quite quickly to $43,836.
This was a good call as the price has continued to move down slowly since then, forming a symmetrical bearish price channel which is shown in the price chart below. I was also correct about the importance of the support level at $46,595 which has continued to hold as firm support.
There is therefore little change to the technical picture from Monday, with any bearish breakdown below $46,595 looking likely to be significant as it will probably trigger a fast additional bearish movement. The price channel supports this.
Longer-term traders are probably best advised to wait for such a breakdown before taking a short trade, while scalpers could find a good long trade opportunity from a bullish bounce from a retest of the support level at $46,595.
Concerning the USD, there will be a release of the ADP non-farm employment payrolls forecast at 1:15pm London time, followed by ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 3pm. There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning Bitcoin.