Last Wednesday’s BTC/USD signal was not triggered as there was no bearish price action when the resistance level at $42,663 was first reached.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Long Trade Ideas
Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $46,867, $46,381, or $45,261.
Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Idea
Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $49,161 or $51,364.
Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote last Wednesday that we were likely to see a continuation of the dominant consolidation pattern, with the price ranging between $40k to $45k. I thought there would probably not be a good trading opportunity over the course of the day, excepting perhaps the resistance level at $42,663 – if the price had got established above that, I saw room for a further price rise.
This was a very good call as when the price did get established above $42,663 during the Asian session, it went on to rise strongly by more than 10%, so my signal gave a very profitable trade entry.
The picture now is much more bullish, Bitcoin has bounced back as it has many times before. The key technical event to note is that resistance is still holding the price below the big round number at $50k, with a key resistance level not far above that. We may well see a bearish retracement from this area that could last at least a few days. However, it could be that the strong bullish price movement will resume.
There were hopes that the US SEC would shortly approve at least some of the four Bitcoin ETFs which have applied for regulatory approval, but the SEC has pushed off the decision until November 2021 at the earliest.
I see the best opportunity likely to arise today as a long trade from a bullish bounce at either $46,381 or $45,261.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the USD.