Last Thursday’s EUR/USD signal was not triggered as none of the key support and resistance levels specified were reached that day.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be entered prior to 5pm London time today.
Short Trade Ideas
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1588 or 1.1610.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1555 or 1.1517.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that we had a firm long-term bearish trend in this currency pair, driven mostly by the US dollar which is usually a good sign as to trend strength. I thought there were good reasons to be looking for short trades here. I was ready to take a short trade from a bearish reversal off 1.1562. The bearish price action took place above 1.1562 so this was not a useful call.
Despite the price not rising by much from the 1-year low that was reached last week, we have seen a succession of higher lows and higher highs for some days, and significantly there appears to be a new higher support level at 1.1555 which has held up the price for some hours. The EUR/USD currency pair is prone to relatively deep retracements within its trends, and we seem to be getting such a bullish retracement right now.
Turning to market sentiment, the euro is weak but moving slowly – the major action in the Forex market over recent days has occurred through the Japanese yen, which has weakened sharply, sending the USD/JPY currency pair to a new multi-year high price.
I see the key indicator of today’s EUR/USD direction as whether the price remains above 1.1555 or breaks below it. If we see a strong break below 1.1555 during the first half of today’s London session that could provide a good opportunity to enter a new short trade.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning either the USD or the EUR.