Gold will enter the month of November within sight of the 1800.00 mark, but after providing bullish speculators with upwards momentum during October, the final day of trading in the month provided a reminder that pursuing its trend remains challenging. Gold closed out the final day of October with a rather steep loss, and when November begins, sentiment will likely remain rather cautious regarding the outlook for the precious metal.
Gold is a darling for many long term investors who buy the precious metal and hold the commodity as a safe haven against the problems of inflation. However, the short-term price is quite speculative and it moves with a great deal of volatility which speculators crave, but also need to protect their positions against. The precious metal started October near lows and on the 6th touched the 1745.00 level.
The past year of trading has actually been difficult for bullish gold traders. While the commodity has certainly provided opportunities to buy at what can be defined as oversold conditions technically, gold has not been able to break free of resistance and seems to be consistently pushed back when it approaches the 1825.00 vicinity. In July of this year, gold achieved a high of nearly 1835.00, which it again challenged in early September. Since the beginning of September, gold has been choppy in many respects, and a low of nearly 1719.00 was seen on the 29th of the month.
A high of nearly 1813.00 was produced for gold on the 22nd of October, but resistance once again caused headwinds. A low of nearly 1780.00 was seen only a few trading days after this high, but the precious metal did manage to gain this past week in a relatively calm manner. But as October’s trading came to an end and after a short-term high of about 1806.00 was seen on the 28th, a rather strong reversal lower left gold near 1782.00 as the month concluded. Having recently traded above 1800.00 and only ‘suffered a slight’ downturn, bullish speculators may want to use the selloff to look for yet another reversal higher near term.
Gold Outlook for November
Speculative price range for gold is 1735.00 to 1856.00.
Gold has certainly seen a slight incremental upwards move the past month, but it has not been able to build a significant amount of confidence with bullish speculators. Many traders will want to see a sustained amount of value above the 1810.00 juncture and the 1825.00 mark to be surpassed before they are willing to proclaim a bull market may be underway. If support levels continue to be challenged with reversals lower the precious metal could remain a speculative haunting. The 1770.00 level needs to be sustained for gold, because if it is broken again near term the precious metal could quickly see moves lower which could bring the 1759.00 ratio into sight which was tested on the 17th of October. If gold were to stumble below this mark, the 1748.00 level looks like a place where durable support could prove adequate and spring a rallying cry from traders who may believe the commodity has been oversold.
However, if gold is able to maintain a price above 1780.00 as November opens, it could deliver some confidence to speculative bulls. Gold has the capability of moving fast, and if the 1790.00 mark is challenged near term, traders may again aim for 1800.00. While this level may be viewed as a psychological juncture by many, the 1800.00 level has proven to be a mere caution sign for traders and when surpassed in recent trading it has not been able to be sustained. Gold will have to move above 1800.00 and prove it can sustain its price above for a solid amount of time before traders proclaim the choppy conditions within the commodity are over. While long-term traders may feel confident about gold for good reason, short- and mid-term traders should understand the commodity can exhibit choppy results.
