Bullish View
- Buy the AUD/USD and set a take-profit at 0.7230.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.7070.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish View
- Set a sell-stop at 0.7100 and a take-profit at 0.7000.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.7200.
The AUD/USD pair wavered on Thursday morning as the market reflected on the hawkish tone by the Federal Reserve chair and the positive numbers from the US and Australia. The pair is also wavering as investors focus on the upcoming jobs numbers from the United States. The pair is trading at 0.7143, which is slightly higher than this week’s lowest point.
Hawkish Federal Reserve
The biggest catalyst for the AUD/USD and the US dollar has been the relatively hawkish statement by the Federal Reserve chair. On his first day of congressional testimony, Jerome Powell sent shockwaves by his statement on quantitative easing and tapering.
He said that the central bank will continue tapering its asset purchases at a quicker pace than expected. In its interest rate decision in November, the bank signalled that it will end its purchases in June next year. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the bank will now wind down the policy in the first quarter of 2022.
This statement will therefore put pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which will start its meeting on Monday and deliver its decision on Tuesday. There is a likelihood that the bank will signal that it will start hiking rates earlier than 2024. In the previous meeting, the bank signalled that it will hike in 2024.
Therefore, with data from Australia being relatively strong, there is a likelihood that the bank will also turn hawkish next week. On Wednesday, data published by the country’s statistics agency showed that the economy contracted by 1.9% in the third quarter. This was a better figure than the median estimate of -2.7%. The economy grew by 3.9% on a year-on-year basis,
In addition, the manufacturing sector did well in November, according to numbers by Markit and Australia Industry Group. And today, numbers showed that the country’s retail sales rebounded in October.
AUD/USD Forecast
The four-hour chart shows that the AUD/USD pair declined to a low of 0.7065 this week. This price was along the first support of the standard pivot points. It then rebounded and is now trading at 0.7130, which is slightly below the standard pivot point.
The pair is still below the 50-day moving average while the MACD has started moving upwards. Therefore, the pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the first resistance at 0.7230.
