Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 36,000 and a take-profit at 35,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 38,000.
- Timeline: 1 day.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 38,500 and a take-profit at 40,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 36,000.
The BTC/USD pair initially retreated after western countries announced their new sanctions on Russia during the weekend. The pair then bounced back and then declined and is currently trading at 37,765, which is substantially higher than last week’s low of 34,343.
Russia Banned From SWIFT
Western countries have been relatively cautious on the sanctions that they are levying on Moscow. Last week, the US left sanctions on Vladimir Putin himself from its original list of sanctions. It added him and his foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, after Europeans did it.
The same case applied to SWIFT, the well-known messaging service that more than 11,000 banks use to communicate with one another. During the weekend, the US and several countries announced that the were excluding some of the biggest banks in Russia from the network. The new measures will hit Russian companies that do substantial business around the world.
Meanwhile, regulators are now focusing on cryptocurrencies. During the weekend, Christine Lagarde of the European Central Bank (ECB) asked the region leaders to start focusing on digital currencies. She argued that many of the sanctioned individuals were turning to these coins to avoid restrictions.
The BTC/USD pair also rose as it emerged that Ukrainian forces and volunteers were slowing down Russians in their attack. At the same time, the number of people sending their donations to Ukraine using Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continued to rise. Already, Bitcoin worth over $13 million has been sent to Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin recovered as on-chain data showed that the number of Bitcoin whales buying the coin was rising. The number of transactions above $100k and $1 million peaked to the highest level during the weekend. In a report, analysts at Glassnode noted that levels above $35,000 were notable since that is the same point that many people bought their holdings.
BTC/USD Forecast
The four-hour chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few days. Along the way, the pair has managed to move above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The pair has also moved slightly below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages (MA). Further, it has formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern, which is usually a bullish sign.
Therefore, there is a likelihood that the pair will continue falling today as the market sentiment worsens. If this happens, the next key support will be at 35,000.
