Bullish View
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3650.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3500.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish View
- Set a sell-stop at 1.3560 and a take-profit at 1.3500.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3625.
The GBP/USD pair rose in the overnight session as investors reacted to the latest UK inflation and US retail sales data and the latest Fed minutes. The pair rose to a high of 1.3591, which was the highest level since 11th February.
US Retail Sales and FOMC Minutes
Wednesday was an important day for the GBP/USD pair. In the morning session, the UK Office of National Statistics (ONS) showed that the country’s inflation held steady in January. The headline figure rose from 5.4% in December to 5.5% in January as food and energy prices rose. Excluding the two, inflation rose by 4.4%, which is higher than the Bank of England (BOE) target of 2.0%.
On Tuesday, the ONS published the latest employment numbers. The data showed that the country’s unemployment rate is approaching where it was before the pandemic started, Further, wages have kept growing as employers compete for talent. Therefore, these numbers are confirming that the BOE will continue tightening this year.
The GBP/USD also reacted to the strong American retail sales data. The data revealed that sales rose by 3.8% in January, the highest figure in 10 months. It was also higher than the median estimate of 2%. These numbers showed that Americans are willing to spend even as inflation keeps rising.
The pair also rose after the Federal Reserve published its minutes of the past meeting. These minutes provided more information about what the bank’s officials were thinking. Most members seemed supportive of more tightening in a bid to slow inflation.
Later today, the key catalyst for the pair will be the latest housing starts, building permits, initial jobless claims, and the Philadelphia manufacturing index. The data is expected to show that the housing sector did well while initial jobless claims declined.
GBP/USD Forecast
The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3590, which is slightly above the key support level at 1.3488, which was the lowest level this week. It has moved slightly above the 25-day moving average. It is also approaching the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The pair is also slightly below the Schiff pitchfork tool.
Therefore, the pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the next key resistance level at 1.3650. This view will be invalidated if the price moves below the key support at 1.3537.
