Gold markets exploded to the upside on Friday as late-day rumors have hit the markets of Vladimir Putin already deciding to invade Ukraine. This has rattled everyone and the fact that it is essentially just New York trading should cause quite a bit of noise. The size of the candlestick is very impressive but at the end of the day we could see a complete turnaround to fall apart if the rumors end up being false.
This is not to say that gold is necessarily something that you should be shorting, just that you cannot jump in with both feet right now based upon the latest rumor or market manipulation. Yes, I probably would agree with the idea of breaking out to the upside given enough time, but you should also keep in mind that we have a lot of resistance above. The US dollar will have its part of play as well, and so will interest rates. I do think that we are in a situation where all three can go higher at the same time, so you cannot necessarily base your trade on that alone.
If we were to break down below the bottom of the candlestick from the trading session on Friday, that would be an extraordinarily negative move at this point. That would almost certainly have this market looking towards the 50 day EMA, if not the 200 day EMA after that. That would be a very stunning turnaround and it suggests to me that we could break down even further if the conditions were right. Keep in mind that gold sometimes it is bought as a safe haven, which is exactly what has happened during the day on Friday. What is particularly dangerous about this set up is the fact that the markets will be closing for a couple of days, so I do expect a gap in one direction or the other when we open. It is going to come down to whether or not we have news coming from Ukraine, or if it is just simple nonsense that has been reported on Friday. At this point in time, it is like Russia and NATO are playing a game of chicken, trying to see who blinks first.
