The USD/INR is near the 75.5000 level as of this writing. Global tensions caused by the war that Russia has initiated against Ukraine, are certainly adding a high level of nervous sentiment within the world financial markets and the Indian Rupee is feeling the effect. While technical traders often follow the adage that market noise regarding news events should be given little attention, the circumstances regarding current developments should likely be given consideration.
The past month of trading within the USD/INR has produced absorbing technical contemplation. On the 15th of February the USD/INR was trading around the 75.6800 level and then fell to nearly a depth of 74.3100 only a handful of days later. However since the lows seen one week ago, the USD/INR has climbed again and the lows which touched marks seen in the third week of January have vanished from consideration for the moment. A mark of 75.8000 was toppled on the 24th of February.
The higher range of the USD/INR now being challenged may prove to be a rather dynamic price range in the coming days and weeks. As global tensions escalate because of the war which is being raged in the Ukraine, traders need to remain calm, but they must also take into consideration the nervous reactions which may suddenly be seen with any new developments. Not only is the turbulence within Europe a concern for forex traders, but the USD/INR is also being affected by speculative elements surrounding the U.S Federal Reserve and the potential action the U.S central bank will undertake in March.
Technical traders may not want to hear about it, but the USD/IND had seemed to digest the news that the U.S Federal Reserve has made it clear they intend on raising interest rates this spring in an aggressive fashion. After hitting a high of nearly 76.4000 in the middle of December 2021, the USD/INR did fall to a low of approximately 73.7200 on the 12th of January. Since the 24th of January the USD/INR has traded within a range of about 74.4200 to the 75.7500 marks.
The fact the USD/INR is within sight of its highs in its current price range is certainly being fueled by nervous global sentiment within the financial markets. Until financial institutions begin to feel more comfortable about the heightened risk being caused by the Ukrainian war being inflicted by Russia, traders may continue to be at the mercy of nervous market sentiment which could be spurred on quite suddenly.
Speculators with experience know the USD/INR can produce a rather solid amount of volatility on its own, and has a habit of breaking technical support and resistance levels rather easily when only short term charts are being used. The added dimension that a war in Europe is being fought will not create a calm trading landscape, but speculators may find that over the coming weeks the financial markets may become more used to the circumstance.
USD/INR Outlook for March 2022:
Speculative price range for USD/INR is 74.4100 to 76.2200.
Current support for the USD/INR looks to be around the 75.2500 realm with a distant support ratio of 75.0500 looking rather durable taking into consideration technical and global circumstances. If the current support levels falter, traders may believe a low of 74.7500 could be attained, but this mark under the present conditions that lurk within the global markets, may prove to be a rather durable support level during March and a place to look for upside price action from the USD/INR.
If The USD/INR challenges current resistance near the 75.6000 ratio and sustains its value above, traders may be tempted to believe the 75.7000 mark is a legitimate target. If this higher price realm sees action above and the 75.8000 is tested again because of nervous sentiment within the global markets, the USD/INR may find itself traversing the 76.0000 juncture.
