Bullish View
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 44,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 41,000.
- Timeline: 1 day.
Bearish View
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 40,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 42,000.
The BTC/USD has been in a tight range in the past few days as concerns about the Federal Reserve remain. The pair is trading at 42,896, which is the highest it has been since March 2. This price is significantly below the all-time high of near 70,000.
Bitcoin Remains Rangebound
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have struggled to find direction in the past few weeks. As a result, some proponents believe that Bitcoin is bottoming while critics argue that the downward trend is still intact.
A look at on-chain data shows that the supply of Bitcoin in private wallets has dropped to a three-year low. Falling supplies at a time when demand is unstable can be a positive sign. For example, if there is a lot of supply in exchanges, it means that people are ready to sell. If it is in their private wallets, then it is unlikely that they will be ready to sell.
There are other reasons why Bitcoin has remained in a tight range in the past few days. For example, there are signs that speculative juices have dried up now that the Federal Reserve has started hiking interest rates. In a statement on Monday, Jerome Powell insisted that the Fed will do whatever it can to stabilize consumer prices.
The lack of liquidity is likely because the US has not delivered the stimulus checks it provided in 2020 and 2021. Joe Biden’s Build Back Better proposal has failed to pass Congress, meaning that liquidity will continue being thin.
Another reason is that Bitcoin remains below the average break-even point of $47,000. This means that most investors are currently at a loss level. As such, short-term traders will sell at every rally.
Meanwhile, the crisis in Ukraine has had its own concerns for Bitcoin prices. On the one hand, there is rising volatility as the crisis escalates. But demand is rising as many Russians embrace the coin.
BTC/USD Forecast
The BTC/USD pair staged a recovery in the overnight session even after the hawkish Federal Reserve chair. The pair is approaching the 43,000 mark and has moved above the key resistance at 42,500. It has moved slightly above the 25-day and 50-day moving average and is nearing the upper side of the triangle pattern. The MACD and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have pointed upwards.
Therefore, the pair will likely keep rising today as bulls target the key resistance at 44,000. This view will be invalid if the price moves below 41,000 again.
