Bearish View
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 38,000..
- Add a stop-loss at 42,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish View
- Set a buy-stop at 41,000 and a take-profit at 42,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 38,000.
The BTC/USD pair has held steady in the past few days even after the Federal Reserve turned hawkish. The pair has held above 40,000, which is about 11% above the lowest level last month. Other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Ripple have also risen.
Bitcoin Holds Steady
There are several reasons why the BTC/USD pair rose even after the hawkish Federal Reserve decision. First, the decision was already priced in by the market. In other words, everyone expected the bank to raise interest rates by 0.25% and express its hawkishness. This explains why other assets like stocks also rose after the decision while the US dollar retreated.
The BTC/USD pair also held steady because of the rising demand from Russia and Belarus. In the past few weeks, it has become increasingly difficult for Russians and Belarusians to receive money from abroad. That’s because the financial sector has been barred from the Swift network. Western governments have also announced severe sanctions on banks and individuals.
Perhaps the most severe sanctions have come from companies in the remittances industry like Western Union, MoneyGram, and Wise. All these companies have blocked all types of services to and from Russia. This means that people with friends abroad cannot send money to the country.
On the other hand, many cryptocurrency companies have announced that they will not block Russian transactions and customers. Therefore, most people have turned to Bitcoin and other digital currencies to move money around.
One evidence about this is from Google and Yandex, which have seen strong search for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in the past few weeks. Also, on-chain data has shown that the number of newly created accounts has been rising. Therefore, some investors believe that Bitcoin will become a viable alternative asset among investors.
BTC/USD Forecast
The four-hour chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has been in a good upward trend in the past few days. As a result, it has managed to retest the important resistance at 42,642, which was the highest point on March 9th. It has also moved slightly above the 25-day and 50-day moving average while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been in an uptrend.
Therefore, there is a likelihood that the pair will retreat slightly as some investors take profits. If this happens, the next key support level will be at 38,000.
