Bearish View
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 42,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 48,000.
- Timeline: 2 days.
Bullish View
- Set a buy-stop at 46,000 and a take-profit at 48,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 44,000.
The BTC/USD pair maintained a bullish trend on Thursday morning as it appeared to diverge from other assets. The pair rose to 45,316, which was the highest point since February 10th. It has made a spectacular recovery considering that it has jumped by about 30% from its lowest level this month.
Bitcoin Leads Other Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin has been in a spectacular rally in the past few days even as American stocks have retreated. It has jumped by more than $10,000 from February 24th. In the same period, the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq 100 indices have dropped. Bitcoin rebound has also led to a strong performance of other altcoins, which has pushed their total market capitalization to more than $2 trillion.
The performance of Bitcoin is likely because of the actions in Europe. This week, western governments announced major sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. They barred most of its biggest banks from using the SWIFT network. At the same time, they announced major sanctions on the Russian central bank, which blocks it from accessing currencies worth more than $300 billion.
As a result, many people in Russia turned to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and altcoins like Tether and USD Coin. Indeed, on-chain data showed that the volume of Bitcoin trading in Russia soared to the highest point in months.
While the crisis in Europe has pushed more people to Bitcoin, there are multiple risks involved. For one, the crisis is expected to push inflation to the highest level in decades. As a result, major central banks will likely react to the situation by hiking interest rates.
In a statement on Wednesday, Fed’s Jerome Powell said that the bank will start hiking interest rates this month. While the initial hike will be 25 basis points, future rate hikes will likely be bigger than that.
BTC/USD Forecast
The BTC/USD pair has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few days. As a result, the pair has moved above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. It has also tested a key resistance level that was the highest point in February.
A closer look shows that oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD have also risen. However, it seems like the pair has formed a double-top pattern, signaling that a pullback will likely happen. If this is true, the next key support to watch will be at 42,000.
