Bearish View
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0700.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0850.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish View
- Set a buy-stop at 1.0835 and a take-profit at 1.0925.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0750.
The EUR/USD pair is hovering near its lowest level since 2020 after the strong US housing data and the IMF warning about the global economy. It is trading at 1.0800, which is substantially lower than last week high of 1.0923.
IMF Warning On the Global Economy
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) delivered a major warning about the global economy on Tuesday. The agency said that the ongoing crisis in Ukraine will lead to a substantial slowdown of the global economy this year. It expects the economy will grow by 3.6% this year., down by 0.8% from its previous guidance in January.
The IMF also warned that European economies were substantially vulnerable especially if they decide to place an embargo on Russian oil and gas. The countries have announced that they are considering blocking Russian oil in a bid to punish the country.
At the same time, the agency warned that inflation will remain high in the coming months as the cost of most items remains stubbornly high. Data published last week showed that the American consumer inflation jumped to the highest level in over 40 years. Investors also expect the upcoming inflation data from the European Union rose to the highest point in decades in March.
The EUR/USD reacted mildly to the latest housing starts and building permits data. The numbers revealed that the country’s building permits rose from 1.86 million in February to 1.87 million in March. In the same period, housing starts rose from 1.788 million to 1.79 million.
The pair declined as American bond yields continued rising. The 10-year yield jumped to 1.29% while the 30-year rose to 3% for the first time in years. This performance is because investors expect that the Federal Reserve will move faster than expected. The EU will publish the latest industrial production data.
EUR/USD Forecast
The EUR/USD pair has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few days. It is now trading at 1.0800, which was the lowest level on March 7th. It has moved below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. It has also formed what looks like an inverted cup and handle pattern and is slightly above the key support level at 1.0758, which was the lowest level this year.
Therefore, the pair will likely keep falling in the coming days as the dollar strength continues. The next key support level will be at 1.0700.
