Bearish View
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 27,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 31,000.
- Timeline: 2 days.
Bullish View
- Set a buy-stop at 30,500 and a take-profit at 32,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 28,000.
The BTC/USD pair is still in a consolidation mode in the past few days as demand for digital coins ease. Bitcoin is trading at $29,350, where it has been in the past few days. This price is about 15% above the lowest level this month.
Bitcoin Demand Slows
The BTC/USD pair has been in a tight range in the past few days as its correlation with American stocks continued. For example, as stocks rose sharply on Monday, Bitcoin rose by more than 200 points.
Now, Bitcoin has retreated as American futures point to a weak open after Snap downgraded its growth forecast. American stocks have had a close correlation with Bitcoin in the past few weeks.
Meanwhile, data in the options market show that investors believe that Bitcoin could keep falling in the next few weeks. For example, the closely watched put/call ratio has risen to the highest level in more than 12 months. This is a signal that the options market is still pessimistic.
At the same time, on-chain data show that the volume of Bitcoin being traded every day has been in a strong downward trend. Worse, long-term holders have started to distribute their holdings since most of them are currently in the loss-making territory.
The next key event that will move Bitcoin will be a statement by Jerome Powell. In it, the Fed chair will provide his opinion about the state of the economy and what the bank plans to do. In his recent statement, he warned about the pain that the market will feel when this tightening continues. The pair will also react to the upcoming minutes by the Federal Reserve.
BTC/USD Forecast
Turning to the daily chart, we see that the BTC/USD pair has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few days. The sell-off saw the price drop below the important support level at $32,935, which was the lowest level on January 24th. The downward trend is also being supported by the 25-day and 50-day moving averages.
Notably, the pair has formed what looks like a bearish flag pattern. Therefore, there is a likelihood that Bitcoin will continue falling as bears target the important support level at $27,000. A move above the resistance level at $31,450 will invalidate the bearish view.
.png "BTC/USD")