Gold markets bounced ever so slightly toward the end of the month for May, and now it looks like we will continue to see a lot of volatility. It is worth paying close attention to the $1800 level because it has been critical multiple times. That being said, we could go much lower, and if we break down below the lows of the month of May, there is not a lot to keep this market from dropping down to the $1700 level.
The $1900 level above will continue to be a significant issue to deal with, and if we can break above there, then it is likely that we could reach the $2000 level. That obviously would be a big move, and I think that is probably asking a lot out of the month of June. June does tend to be a little bit quiet, so there is also the possibility that we will spend quite a bit of the month consolidating. This is my base case scenario currently. The market has sold off quite drastically, so it is not inconceivable that we would go sideways to stabilize and then perhaps become comfortable with the idea of buying gold again. After all, unless something drastic happens, it is doubtful that we would see this market simply take off during the month of June.
On the downside, if we were to break down below the $1700 level, that would be catastrophic. However, that is not very likely to happen without a significant spike in the US dollar. More likely than not, the market will continue to ping around the $1800 level, give or take $50 occasionally. The volume and participation in June tend to be a bit weak, so I would not be surprised to have more or less a back-and-forth type of range that we are dealing with.
Pay close attention to the US bond yields because if we continue to see them elevated, that does work against the value of gold, but on the other hand, if we see yields fall suddenly, then owning gold becomes a bit more palatable. I think we are going to have a very quiet couple of months, as we are simply back where we started from the most recent rally. Most of the trading you will be doing during the month of June will probably be half of the shorter time frames.
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