Gold markets initially rallied on Tuesday as we gapped higher. However, we turned around to show signs of life and then fell again. Ultimately, the market is one that is testing a major support level underneath, so the fact that we have bounced from there does suggest that we are going to eventually have to make a decision for the longer term. At this point, a lot of what people are paying attention to is the Federal Reserve and its hawkish behavior, something that continues.
The Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell spoke during the trading session where he suggested that the Federal Reserve would be more than willing to “go well above the neutral” in order to combat inflation. This could lead to an even stronger US dollar, and it is likely that we would see this market fail at that point. We need to break down below the hammer from the previous session in order to completely flush lower, but one thing is for sure, the price action during the trading session on Tuesday was less than impressive.
Even if we do rally from here, breaking above the top of the candlestick could open up the possibility of a return to the 200-day EMA, which is currently sitting at the $1857 level and drooping. Any rally at this point in time will have to be looked at with suspicion, so you most certainly need to be cautious about buying gold at the moment. That being said, it is worth noting that the $1800 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and an area where we have seen support previously. If we were to break down below there, it could get very ugly.
If we do break above the 200-day EMA, then the market has a chance of going to the $1900 level, but it would obviously need some type of momentum to make that happen. Ultimately, I think this is a situation in which we will continue to see a lot of choppy behavior, so at best we are probably looking at a sideways market and a bit of range-bound trading setup. Pay attention to the US dollar, 10-year yields, and all of the usual suspects when it comes to this market and the correlations.
