Gold markets went back and forth on Friday as we continue to see a lot of noise in the markets. The 200-day EMA is sitting at the $1856 level, offering a bit of resistance. At this point, if we see any hint of selling pressure, then it is likely that we could go back down to the lows again. That being said, the $1800 level is like a major floor in the market, and an area where we would see a lot of interest.
If we break down below the lows of the Friday session, it is likely that we could go back down to the $1800 level, an area that will attract a lot of attention. If we break down below the $1800 level, then it is possible that we could drop towards the uptrend line that has been so important for the last couple of years. Breaking below there could open up the floodgates to much lower levels, but at this point, it seems as if gold continues to fight at a crucial level. This suggests that we are going to turn around and rally.
Alternately, if we were to break above the 200-day EMA, then it is likely that we would go looking to the $1900 level. The $1900 level is an area where we have seen a lot of previous support, so it should act as significant resistance according to “market memory.” Expect a lot of volatility, but at this point, I think we are trying to build some type of floor in the market, which does take a certain amount of effort and time. Because of this, do not be surprised at all if we remain somewhat resilient, but more than anything else you need to look at this through the prism of the short-term market and recognize that things will be noisy. The only thing you can do in that scenario is trade shorter-term charts, and keep your position size as reasonable as possible. Keep in mind that gold does tend to be very volatile, so trading small positions in more of a range-bound system might be the best way over the next couple of days. With this being the case, the market is likely to see volatility, but it should offer plenty of opportunity.
