The NASDAQ 100 has been like a virtual punching bag for the short-sellers during the month of May. While the market is certainly oversold, the reality is that there’s no reason to think that the NASDAQ 100 is suddenly going to take out to the upside. After all, there’s a lot of risk appetite that’s needed for this market to rally, so I still look at any time we bounce as a potential shorting opportunity. The 12,000 level has been broken below, and now it looks like we are trying to reach the 11,000 level underneath.
If we do turn around and rally, I believe that there is a significant amount of resistance to be found near the 13,000 level, and possibly just about there. In fact, it’s not until we break above the 13,000 level that I would start to think about the upside. Ultimately, this is a market that is going to continue to get beaten up by the idea of higher interest rates, as technology stocks do tend to suffer. The NASDAQ 100 is very volatile, and at this point in time, I think the volatility lends itself to be more negative than anything else. After all, the world is worried about growth and risk appetite in general.
Any balance during the month of July has to be looked at as a potential selling opportunity, so I would probably focus more on short-term charts than anything else, because the volatility will continue to make any rally suspicious, and I think that a lot of the buyers will be very cautious about trying to hang on to bigger moves. In fact, if you are a “long-only fund” at this point, you are probably more than happy to take small profits instead of risking yet another meltdown.
If the Federal Reserve changes its attitude, that changes the entire outlook for the market, but right now it seems as if it’s hell-bent on trying to get down to the 11,000 level, perhaps even down to the 10,000 level during the month of June. It should also be noted that the middle of the summer tends to be a bit less than bullish, so ultimately it’s a market that I just have no interest in trying to buy until we get a weekly close above the 13,000 level.
