This week I will begin with my monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of my forecast is based upon my research of the past 20 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:
- Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the past 6 months.
- Trading against very strong weekly counter-trend movements by currency pairs made during the previous week.
- Carry Trade: Buying currencies with high interest rates and selling currencies with low interest rates.
Let us look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:
Monthly Forecast May 2022
For the month of May, I forecasted that the US Dollar Index (USDX) would rise in value. So far, it has fallen by 0.04% this month to date.
Weekly Forecast 22nd May 2022
Last week, I made no weekly forecast as there were no unusually strong counter-trend price movements in the Forex market over the previous week. This week, I expect to see the USD/CHF currency pair rise in value as it fell strongly last week against its long-term trend.
The Forex market saw its level of directional volatility fell last week, with 41% of all the important currency pairs or crosses moving by more than 1% in value. Directional volatility is likely to increase or remain the same over this coming week.
Last week was dominated by relative strength in the Swiss Franc, and relative weakness in the US Dollar.
You can trade my forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.
Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs
I teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that can be watched on the more popular currency pairs this week.
Currency Pair | Key Support / Resistance Levels |
AUD/USD | Support: 0.7008, 0.6996, 0.6976, 0.6950 Resistance: 0.7050, 0.7125, 0.7180, 0.7227 |
EUR/USD | Support: 1.0540, 1.0509, 1.0457, 1.0391 Resistance: 1.0591, 1.0604, 1.0650, 1.0697 |
GBP/USD | Support: 1.2226, 1.2139, 1.1976, 1.1900 Resistance: 1.2437, 1.2412, 1.2386, 1.2330 |
USD/JPY | Support: 127.51, 126.02, 125.72, 124.93 Resistance: 128.95, 129.60, 130.01, 130.84 |
AUD/JPY | Support: 89.01, 88.35, 86.55, 86.19 Resistance: 90.52, 91.99, 92.94, 93.34 |
EUR/JPY | Support: 134.59, 133.66, 132.35, 131.91 Resistance: 135.75, 136.83, 138.26, 140.00 |
USD/CAD | Support: 1.2778, 1.2684, 1.2638, 1.2587 Resistance: 1.2869, 1.2895, 1.2953, 1.2995 |
USD/CHF | Support: 0.9671, 0.9633, 0.9604, 0.9515 Resistance: 0.9760, 0.9791, 0.9833, 0.9883 |
Let us see how trading reversals from one of last week’s key levels could have worked out:
USD/CAD
I had expected the level at $1.2778 might function as support, as it had previously functioned as both support and resistance. Note how such “flipping” levels can be very reliable reversal points. The H1 chart below shows how the price rejected this level with bullish price action which included a small inside bar during the London session last Friday, which is typically a good time to be trading Forex. The entry point is marked by up down arrow within the price chart below. This trade has been nicely profitable so far, achieving a maximum positive risk reward ratio of 7 to 1 based upon the size of the entry candlestick structure. Note how the resistance level at $1.2869 marked in red within the price chart would have been an effective short-term profit target.
USD/CAD Hourly Chart
That is all for this week. You can trade my forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account to test the strategies and strengthen your self-confidence before investing real funds.