Bullish View
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 24,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 19,500.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish View
- Sell the BTC/USD and set a take-profit at 19,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 22,500.
The BTC/USD pair made a bullish breakout last week even as more signs of a hawkish Federal Reserve emerged. Bitcoin rose above the symmetrical triangle pattern and retested the resistance at $22,000 for the first time in weeks. It is trading at 21,284, which is about 22% above the lowest level in June.
Risky Assets Recover
The BTC/USD pair rallied above 22,000 last week as risky assets made some recovery. Bitcoin rose as American equities, including those in the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones bounced back. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index rose for the week while the fear and greed index moved from the fear zone.
Bitcoin rallied even as more signs emerged that the Federal Reserve will continue hiking interest rates in the upcoming meeting. On Wednesday, minutes by the FOMC revealed that most officials expect that the bank will continue hiking interest rates in the coming meetings.
While most economic data from the US have been negative, numbers by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the labor market is doing well. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6% while wages jumped by more than 5% in June.
The next key data to watch will be the important American consumer inflation data. Analysts expect the data to show that the headline CPI jumped to 8.8% in June while core inflation slipped slightly. Still, these numbers will likely have no major impact on the actions of the Federal Reserve.
The BTC/USD pair also bounced back as Celsius continued paying debts it owes to several companies. For example, it paid $440 million to Maker DAO. It also moved about $500 million to FTX, one of the biggest companies in the industry.
The other catalyst will be the upcoming bank earnings. Companies like Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, and Goldman Sachs will publish their earnings.
BTC/USD Forecast
The four-hour chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has been in a recovery mode in the past few days. The pair managed to move above the symmetrical triangle that is shown in purple. It then move above the 25-day moving average and is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The MACD has moved above the neutral point.
Therefore, the pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 25,000. A drop below the support at 20,000 will invalidate the bullish view.
