Gold Forecast: Markets Fall to Kick Off the Week

• The gold markets have fallen a bit during the day on Monday to drop about two-thirds of a percent in the spot market.
• The market now looks as if it is paying close attention to the $1725 level, an area that was previous resistance.
• This is a market that is going to move counter to the US dollar and interest rates, as is the longer-term trend.

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When you see this chart, you can also see that we have been in a long-term downtrend, and it’s worth noting that the US dollar itself is strengthening based on tightening concerns. With the Jackson Hole Symposium going on this week, it does make a certain amount of sense that traders are focusing on the speeches of central bankers. If they are going to continue to tighten monetary policy, that works against gold, due to the fact that the interest rates will be higher, and therefore it’s easier to make a return holding paper than it is storing gold.

See where Gold is headed next

The candlestick for the trading session on Monday is relatively negative, but it’s not necessarily something that I’m overly concerned about. I believe that the market is going to not only pay attention to the $1725 level, and then again at the $1690 level. That’s an area that needs a hold in order for gold to perhaps keep its head above water. If we were to break down below that level, then the market is likely to go looking to much lower levels, with perhaps an eye on the $1500 level.

If we can try to break above the $1770 level, we may make a run toward the $1800 level above, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that we have seen the market pullback from as well. All things being equal, this is a market that has been in a downtrend for a while, and even though we had a nice rally recently, it did not change much. In fact, it’s not until we break above the 200 Day EMA, which is currently hanging around the $1820 level, that I would consider this market to be changing over into a longer-term bullish trend. This is a market that I think will remain noisy, as there are a lot of crosscurrents going on at the same time.

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