Gold markets rallied a bit during the trading session on Tuesday to show signs of life again as the market has threatened to break above the $1750 level. If you can do that, then it’s likely that we could go looking into the 50-Day EMA above, which is near the $1775 level.
Looking at this chart, it’s obvious that the market has seen a lot of volatility and negative pressure, so even if we do rally, I think we probably have a lot of work to do before we start to turn around and rise for the longer term. Interest rates in America continue to rise, and that does work against the value of gold. So does the US dollar rising, although all of these things can go higher at the same time, depending on the situation that is going on. At this point, it looks to me as if gold is trying to at least get a short-term rally going, so pay close attention to the next couple of days and the statements coming out of the Jackson Hole Symposium, because it could have a lot to say as to where we are going next.
Underneath, I think the 6 $1720 level could be short-term support, but if we were to break down below there, it’s almost a given that we will test the lows again. Breaking down below the lows that we made several weeks ago could open up even further selling pressure, which would probably coincide with interest-rate spanking, and of course, the US dollar strengthening. Because of that, you need to be aware of the fact that we have a lot of concerns coming out of the bond market.
It All Depends on Interest Rates
- If the rates in America continue to rise, it will make bonds a lot more attractive than gold, which of course you have to pay to store.
- There is a lot of resistance above that if we broke through, you’d have to consider a trend change, namely, the $1800 level and the 200 Day EMA. If we can clear all of that, then gold becomes more or less a “buy-and-hold” asset.
- The only thing you can count on in the short term is going to be a lot of noisy behavior and therefore you need to be cautious about the position size that you put on in this market.
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