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BTC/USD Forecast: Bounces from the Same Support Level

By Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

The $18,000 level underneath is a significant amount of support, but it’s also an area that I think we break down through. 

  • The BTC/USD market has dropped a bit during the trading session on Wednesday to reach down toward the $18,000 level.
  • The $18,000 level of course is an area that has been support for some time now.
  • Because of this, it’s likely that we will continue to see a lot of interest in this area, but now, the upside seems to be rather limited.

The 50-Day EMA above is drifting lower, and it did offer resistance during the previous session on Tuesday, so now it’s likely that we will see sellers in that area. The 50-Day EMA continues to drift lower, and that should offer plenty of resistance going forward. However, if we break above that level, then it opens the possibility of a move to the $22,000 level. However, it’s not until we break above the $25,000 level that I am truly impressed with any type of rally, as risk appetite has been miserable for a while.

Traders Likely to Avoid Risky Investments

Ultimately, selling signs of exhaustion will be the best way going forward, and therefore it’s likely that we will continue to see sellers jump into this market and take advantage of “cheap dollars” when it is measured in crypto. The $18,000 level underneath is a significant amount of support, but it’s also an area that I think we break down through. After all, we continue to make “lower highs”, which is the very epitome of what sets up a trend. Once we do break down, it’s likely that we could go down to the $15,000 level, possibly even the $12,000 level.

What I find interesting about the $12,000 level is where we started this whole thing, meaning the spike to the 60,000s. Ultimately, I do think that eventually we will see a rally that fails, and we will break through that support level. Once we do, then I think we go much further in a quick move. The market will more likely than continue to see a lot of traders run away from high-risk investments such as cryptocurrency, so I think Bitcoin has a very limited upside to say the least. I have no interest in buying, and I think that we have quite a bit of time to build up a position for the next run higher. However, you are going to need to see the Federal Reserve change its attitude before that happens. You don’t

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Christopher Lewis
About Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
 

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